I lately previewed preliminary findings from the Insurance coverage Institute for Enterprise & Dwelling Security’s (IBHS) 10-Yr Asphalt Shingle Examine in a publish, When Insurers’ Personal Science Reveals Small Hail Can Wreck Roofs. At the moment, the outcomes instructed what many within the area have noticed first-hand: repeated publicity to small, “sub-severe” hailstones isn’t innocent. It may well speed up shingle getting old and go away roofs way more susceptible to later storms.
The peer-reviewed research is now formally revealed within the journal Frontiers in Supplies below the title Sub-severe Hail: The Lacking Piece in Assessing Asphalt Shingle Threat in North America. 1 Its conclusions are exhausting to disregard. IBHS researchers subjected shingles to excessive concentrations of sub-severe hail, stones measuring between 0.7 and 1 inch, mixed with pure weathering in outside circumstances. The outcomes confirmed that simply two years of this publicity brought about shingles to carry out extra like they have been a decade previous.
The numbers are placing. Shingles uncovered to each pure weathering and small hail turned roughly ten occasions extra inclined to break from subsequent extreme hail in comparison with new merchandise. Granule loss particularly stood out: as soon as the protecting mineral floor was stripped away by repeated small hail, the underlying asphalt turned brittle and degraded shortly below UV mild. When giant hail adopted, the weakened shingles skilled dramatically greater harm than management samples.
This analysis gives scientific backing for what many contractors, roofers, and public adjusters have been arguing within the area for years. “Minor” hailstorms, usually dismissed by carriers as merely beauty, in truth contribute to cumulative roof deterioration. The truth is that almost all hailstorms carry a mixture of sizes, with small hail way more frequent than the large stones that seize headlines. Ignoring the influence of frequent sub-severe occasions overlooks the real-world course of by which roofs are broken and put on down.
The authors additionally acknowledge that this research is only the start. They’re already increasing their testing to 9 further generally used asphalt shingle merchandise over the following two years to evaluate the consistency of the outcomes throughout {the marketplace}. That dedication to ongoing testing is important as a result of it underscores how little consideration sub-severe hail has obtained in sturdiness requirements and danger assessments till now.
For these of us working within the hail claims area, the implications are pretty clear. This knowledge challenges long-standing opinions by insurance coverage firm consultants which have denied or minimized harm from small hail. If the science says these storms age shingles years forward of schedule and set the stage for catastrophic failure in later storms, then dismissing that harm on the claims desk is at odds with the proof.
Now that the research has been revealed following peer evaluate, the opinions about small hail inflicting harm ought to be stronger than ever. My prediction is that the talk over what qualifies as “harm” will solely intensify as IBHS continues its work.
From a long-term and societal perspective, this isn’t excellent news. Excellent news could be that our asphalt roofing merchandise don’t get broken and stand up to small hail occasions. It is much better that no harm happen, as a result of we now need to face paying for costlier roofs and extra frequent roof losses. Insurance coverage premiums will go up except we are able to discover and place roof merchandise that higher stand up to the peril of hail.
I be part of with these within the insurance coverage trade demanding extra fortified buildings and constructing merchandise that may stand up to the perils to property. A decrease frequency of loss and lowered severity of price when loss happens by means of mitigation efforts is one thing all of us ought to help. That’s straightforward to say. So, the query is whether or not we’ve got the frequent will to do it?
Thought For The Day
Three Little Pigs… the ‘three little pigs demo.’
—Elon Musk’s shorthand for resilience/stress-testing in high-stakes tech reveals
1 Brenna Meisenzahl, Ian Giammanco, and Faraz Hedayati. Sub-severe hail: the lacking piece in assessing asphalt shingle danger in North America. Entrance Mater., Vol. 12 (2025).
